The world of mixed martial arts (MMA) is constantly buzzing, and the event “UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Imavov” promises to offer fans an evening filled with excitement, twists, and technical matchups. Inside the Octagon, international-caliber athletes will face off, some already established as UFC stars and others looking for a triumph that could change their careers. In this article, we will analyze every single bout on the main card, highlighting each fighter’s technical characteristics and attempting to gauge the likelihood of victory. Get ready for a journey through wrestling, striking, grappling, and refined strategies.

1. Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov (Middleweights)

Fighter Analysis

• Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya
  Adesanya is one of the UFC’s most renowned strikers, known for his kickboxing background and elite-level striking skills. A former middleweight champion with multiple title defenses, he has shown excellent ability to read his opponents, control distance, and use his reach to neutralize their offense. With extraordinary reflexes and exceptional timing, Adesanya is particularly dangerous on the counterattack: any mistake in distance or timing by his opponent can be punished with accurate and powerful shots.
• Nassourdine Imavov
  Imavov is a rising talent in the middleweight division. Originally from France, he has stood out for his blend of striking and grappling. Comfortable exchanging on the feet and on the ground, Imavov boasts good reach and notable offensive aggression. His style is based on linear, direct strikes and strong cage control, which can pose problems for pure strikers like Adesanya. Although he has less experience in high-profile fights compared to “The Last Stylebender,” Imavov has shown he can handle pressure, steadily improving his performance as the rounds progress.

Key Matchup Factors

The battle will primarily take place at range. Adesanya will use his excellent footwork to move laterally and counter, while Imavov will look to close the distance and force short-range exchanges or push the former champion against the fence, where he might attempt takedowns or prolonged clinches. If Adesanya manages to keep the fight standing and defend the takedowns, he will have a clear advantage thanks to his accuracy and variety of strikes. On the other hand, if Imavov can cut off the space and trap Adesanya against the cage, we could see attempts at takedowns or dirty boxing that might shift the fight’s momentum.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Adesanya wins: 65%
• Imavov wins: 35%

Adesanya’s greater experience in high-level fights and his ability to strike with precision give him the edge. However, Imavov could surprise if he manages to impose a relentless pace and deny “The Last Stylebender” the space to unleash his combinations.

2. Co-Main Event: Paulo Costa vs Derek Brunson (Middleweights)

Fighter Analysis

• Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa
  Costa is an explosive fighter endowed with great physical power. His aggressive style relies on constant forward pressure and heavy punching and kicking combinations, especially to the body. He has shown some vulnerabilities when facing opponents adept at counter-striking and movement, but remains a constant threat for anyone due to his devastating knockouts.
• Derek Brunson
  Brunson is a veteran of the division, boasting a solid wrestling base and simple yet effective boxing. Over his career, he has alternated important wins with losses at critical moments, but he remains a tough gatekeeper for any contender aiming for the top of the middleweight division. His main strength is his wrestling: if he can get his opponent to the ground, he is adept at controlling position and delivering ground and pound.

Key Matchup Factors

Costa will focus on power and his ability to cut off the cage, aiming for a close-range battle. If Brunson succeeds in taking the Brazilian down, he could well impose his grappling or at least accumulate valuable points and wear out Costa’s cardio. The timing of takedowns will be crucial: Brunson must avoid lengthy exchanges on the feet, where Costa’s powerful strikes could pose a big problem.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Costa wins: 55%
• Brunson wins: 45%

An essentially balanced matchup: Costa is slightly favored thanks to his power and hunger for victory, but Brunson could turn the tables with the right game plan.

3. Lightweight Bout: Arman Tsarukyan vs Gregor Gillespie

Fighter Analysis

• Arman Tsarukyan
  Among the best prospects in the lightweight category, Tsarukyan stands out for his excellent technique on the feet but especially for his dynamic grappling. He has impressive offensive wrestling, which he uses to bring opponents to the ground and work from dominant positions.
• Gregor Gillespie
  A top-level wrestler, Gillespie has always shown a relentless pace and a determination to bring the fight to the mat at all costs. He excels in ground and pound and hunting for submissions from dominant positions. However, he struggles against fighters with equally solid wrestling backgrounds and good footwork.

Key Matchup Factors

This fight could be dominated by grappling exchanges. Both fighters will try to assert their wrestling, but they might also neutralize each other, forcing stand-up exchanges. Tsarukyan may have a slight advantage in striking and could use it to score from distance, while Gillespie will try to close the gap and secure a takedown right away.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Tsarukyan wins: 60%
• Gillespie wins: 40%

The Armenian fighter is favored thanks to an excellent mix of striking and wrestling. Gillespie, however, remains a dangerous opponent, especially if he finds his rhythm on the ground.

4. Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira

Fighter Analysis

• Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm
  A former UFC champion, Holm built her reputation on her elite-level striking, thanks to a successful career in boxing and kickboxing before transitioning to MMA. She excels at maintaining distance and utilizing front and round kicks, along with a good takedown defense. However, she often struggles to inflict significant damage on more physically imposing opponents.
• Ketlen Vieira
  Brazilian with a background in judo and jiu-jitsu, Vieira is a standout grappler in the division. With excellent transitions on the ground, she can be a major problem for pure strikers like Holm. She has recently improved her striking, though it’s still not quite at Holm’s level standing up.

Key Matchup Factors

Holm will aim to keep the fight in striking range, controlling distance with kicks and jabs. Vieira, on the other hand, will try to take the fight to the ground, where she can work from top control and look for submissions. If Vieira manages to close the distance, Holm will have to defend against clinches and takedowns. Conversely, if the Brazilian fails to close the gap, she risks losing by points or TKO.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Holm wins: 60%
• Vieira wins: 40%

Holm’s greater experience and striking prowess make her the favorite, but if Vieira manages to impose her grappling, the dynamic of the fight could change swiftly.

5. Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque vs Neil Magny

Fighter Analysis

• Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque
  Luque is known for his aggressive style and his ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground. With a Muay Thai background and solid BJJ, he is one of the most well-rounded welterweights in the division. He loves to trade blows on the feet and boasts powerful punches and precise kicks.
• Neil Magny
  Famous for his endurance and reach, Magny is a veteran of the division. He can control the pace of the fight and frequently uses his height to maintain distance with jabs and long kicks. On the ground, he has solid defense and can work ground and pound if he manages a takedown.

Key Matchup Factors

Luque will try to close the distance of Magny’s reach, moving in to exchange with punch combinations and powerful low kicks. Magny, for his part, prefers to stay at range, working his jab to deter Luque’s forward charges. A key factor will be mental fortitude: Luque is known for his aggression, while Magny will look to implement a more strategic approach, aiming to take the fight to the ground if he sees an opportunity.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Luque wins: 60%
• Magny wins: 40%

Luque’s offensive potency gives him a slight edge, but Magny has the experience and tactical awareness to steer the fight on his own terms and pull off an upset.

6. Light Heavyweight Bout: Johnny Walker vs Ovince Saint Preux

Fighter Analysis

• Johnny Walker
  Walker is a spectacular athlete, famed for his lightning-fast knockouts and unconventional techniques. He’s tall, with a great reach, and favors a creative style mixing high kicks, flying knees, and explosive punches. However, if the fight goes long, he sometimes shows shortcomings in cardio and pace management.
• Ovince Saint Preux (OSP)
  OSP is a veteran of the light heavyweight division with a background in American football. He possesses significant physical power and underrated grappling skills. His signature move is the “Von Flue choke,” a submission he has successfully employed multiple times. Standing, he alternates between highly dangerous moments and passive phases, relying on his power sporadically.

Key Matchup Factors

Walker will aim to set a high pace and try to end things early in the first round. If he fails, OSP could capitalize by seeking a takedown or attacking Walker once he starts to slow down. It will be crucial for Saint Preux to avoid the spectacular shots of the Brazilian in the first minutes.

Prediction and Winning Probability

• Walker wins: 55%
• OSP wins: 45%

This fight could end quickly. Walker is slightly favored due to his explosiveness, but he must avoid burning too much energy early on. OSP, meanwhile, needs to weather the early storm and look to impose himself as the rounds progress.